26.01 -0.04 (-0.15%) Buy

MDU investors treading cautiously as performance is muted

13 min read

MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC delivered massive losses today. It returned -0.15% to close at 26.01. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.15%, +0.74%, -2.57%, -1.19% and +1.32%.

[Themes containing MDU]

MDU is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months trading long signals has not been a profitable strategy for MDU's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -4.34%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current uptrend by limiting your allocation to MDU.


MDU has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, MDU outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months MDU was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.85%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.84%) was on Wednesday, 19 Sep, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -3.92% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 15 Oct, 2018 and ended on 22 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +3.76% to investors.

On monthly basis, MDU delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. MDU delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. MDU was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -7.89% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MDU had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -14.03%. It is interesting to note that both MDU and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That's not just a catchy slogan. It's the very essence of successful investing.
-- J. Paul Getty

MDU is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MDU's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MDU has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MDU to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MDU a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MDU. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MDU in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MDU.

Based on your interest in MDU you may find it interesting to know that PFE is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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