MDLZ investors herd to book profits while the going is good

MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC. was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -1.8% to close at 43.55. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing MDLZ]

MDLZ is currently in a bullish trend. The previous long signal in MDLZ has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in MDLZ at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

MDLZ has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 29 Jan, 2016 to 7 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MDLZ underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days MDLZ underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MDLZ was mostly loss making and delivered on average 0.0% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.01%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.56%) was on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +5.75%) started on 5 Nov, 2018 and went on till 12 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -2.56%) started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 1 Oct, 2018.

During the last year MDLZ had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. MDLZ returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. MDLZ significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +7.15% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MDLZ had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -9.62%. It is interesting to note that both MDLZ and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.

MDLZ is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MDLZ's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MDLZ has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in MDLZ derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MDLZ. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MDLZ in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MDLZ.

Based on your interest in MDLZ you may find it interesting to know that AAXN, ZBRA and PTC are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.