110.03 -0.77 (-0.7%) Sell

The party never started for MAR investors as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC delivered massive losses on Tuesday. It returned -0.7% to close at 110.03. It is currently trading -25% below it's 52 week high of 147.99.

[Themes containing MAR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MAR experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.7% over the last three months. It returned -15.06% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +9.27%.


MAR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 14 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, MAR outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

During the last three months MAR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.12%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.59%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 28 Sep, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -15.03% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 25 Oct, 2018 and ended on 1 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +12.44% to investors.

On monthly basis, MAR delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. MAR delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. MAR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +10.16% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MAR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -14.87%. It is interesting to note that both MAR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

When I graduated, I promptly took a job in finance, making both my pre-med and poli-sci years essentially useless - or so I thought.
-- Yael Cohen

MAR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MAR's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MAR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MAR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MAR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in MAR derivatives at this moment can consider 'Calendar Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

MAR has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, MAR must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MAR.

Based on your interest in MAR you may find it interesting to know that NFEC has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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