110.03 -1.35 (-1.23%) Sell

LOPE is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. was among the worst performers today. It delivered -1.23% to close at 110.03. During the last week it delivered -9.25% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.25%.

[Themes containing LOPE]

Buy-and-Hold investors in LOPE experienced a maximum drawdown of -15.15% over the last three months. It delivered -0.71% during this flat trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +4.51%.


LOPE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 17 Feb, 2016 to 7 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, LOPE outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months LOPE was mostly profitable and delivered on average -0.0% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.65%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.05%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 12 Oct, 2018 and went on till 22 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +7.43% to investors.

The last 12 months saw LOPE's investors making profits in 9 months and incurring losses in 3 months. During the last year, LOPE delivered profits in more months than SP500 index. LOPE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -10.08% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. LOPE had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 8 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +27.12%. It is interesting to note that both LOPE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's not the employer who pays the wages. Employers only handle the money. It's the customer who pays the wages.
-- Henry Ford

LOPE is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in LOPE's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that LOPE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than LOPE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than LOPE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than LOPE.

On a general note (since you are interested in LOPE), AYTU has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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