53.25 -0.27 (-0.5%) Sell

Looking to invest in IHG? Avoid at the moment as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

IHG was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC (Foreign) made +0.03% per day. Friday's performance of -0.5% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing IHG]

IHG showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IHG fell by -13.09% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.71%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +5.03% to investors.


IHG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 14 Mar, 2016 to 9 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, IHG underperformed the SP500 index on 43% days. Which indicates that on days IHG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months IHG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.21% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.13%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.77%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 11 losing days, which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.51% of investor capital.

During the last year IHG had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. IHG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. IHG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.2% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. IHG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both IHG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's not the situation, but whether we react (negative) or respond (positive) to the situation that's important.
-- Zig Ziglar

IHG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in IHG's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IHG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect IHG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes IHG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IHG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than IHG in your portfolio. IHG usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in IHG you may find it interesting to know that TWTR, ABMD and LULU are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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