HEALTHSTREAM INC

24.52 -0.81 (-3.31%) Sell

Looking to invest in HSTM? Avoid at the moment as it significantly underperformed

13 min read

HEALTHSTREAM INC significantly underperformed on Monday. It fell by -3.31% to close at 24.52. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 69% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing HSTM]

HSTM showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period HSTM fell by -21.23% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.19%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +16.94%.

Trend

HSTM has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Oct, 2016 to 31 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, HSTM underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days HSTM underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months HSTM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.29%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.81%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.01% of investor capital.

During the last year HSTM had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. HSTM returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. HSTM significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +20.09% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. HSTM had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -21.36%.

"We ignore outlooks and forecasts.. we're lousy at it and we admit it .. everyone else is lousy too, but most people won't admit it.

HSTM is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HSTM's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HSTM has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HSTM. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than HSTM in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HSTM.

On a general note (since you are interested in HSTM), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are ZBRA, BURL and PTC. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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