HSIC investors herd to book profits while the going is good

HENRY SCHEIN INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -3.9% to close at 80.52. It is currently trading +26% above it's 52 week low of 63.44 and is down only -10% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing HSIC]

HSIC is currently in a bullish trend. The previous long signal in HSIC has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in HSIC at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

HSIC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 24 Feb, 2016 to 1 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, HSIC underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days HSIC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months HSIC delivered profits on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.57%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.9%) was on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 26 Nov, 2018 and went on till 3 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +7.51% to investors.

The last 12 months saw HSIC's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. HSIC was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. HSIC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +15.45% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. HSIC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both HSIC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Empty pockets never held anyone back. Only empty heads and empty hearts can do that.
-- Norman Vincent Peale

HSIC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HSIC's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 8 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HSIC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect HSIC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes HSIC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HSIC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than HSIC in your portfolio. HSIC usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in HSIC you may find it interesting to know that ICPT, NVCN and VIPS are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.