HOLOGIC INC

41.98 -1.23 (-2.94%) Buy

HOLX investors looking to cut their losses short

13 min read

HOLX is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in HOLOGIC INC made -0.03% per day. Friday's performance of -2.94% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing HOLX]

Buy-and-Hold investors in HOLX experienced a maximum drawdown of -8.87% over the last three months. It surged by +8.22% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

HOLX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 11 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, HOLX underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days HOLX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

HOLX was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.14% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +3.82%, during this period, on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +7.58%) started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -6.97%) started on 18 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw HOLX's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. HOLX was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. HOLX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +13.9% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. HOLX had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -13.25%. It is interesting to note that both HOLX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's not the situation, but whether we react (negative) or respond (positive) to the situation that's important.
-- Zig Ziglar

HOLX is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HOLX's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HOLX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect HOLX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes HOLX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HOLX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than HOLX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HOLX.

Based on your interest in HOLX you may find it interesting to know that AMD and SQ are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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