16.91 +0.15 (+0.9%) Sell

Don't go profit booking on GLP now, it delivered a decent return

13 min read

GLP outperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in GLOBAL PARTNERS LP made +0.04% per day. Thursday's performance of +0.9% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing GLP]

GLP showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GLP delivered -8.59% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.55%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.14%.


GLP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Jan, 2016 to 9 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, GLP underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

GLP returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.13% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.66%, during this period, on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +14.34% to investors.

The last 12 months saw GLP's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. GLP was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. GLP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -14.62% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GLP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -13.77%. It is interesting to note that both GLP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I think that stocks have been this tremendous, tremendous equalizer for people in this country. Guys who can't make a lot of money at their jobs have been able to make a lot of money in the stock market.
-- Jim Cramer

GLP is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GLP's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GLP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GLP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GLP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GLP. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GLP in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GLP.

On a general note (since you are interested in GLP), AYTU has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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