9.65 -0.21 (-2.13%) Sell

GCI is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GANNETT CO., INC. significantly underperformed on Monday. It delivered -2.13% to close at 9.65. It is currently trading -21% below it's 52 week high of 12.23.

[Themes containing GCI]

GCI showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GCI delivered -2.92% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.79%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.92%.


GCI has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 11 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, GCI underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months GCI delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +6.84%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.93%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 4 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +2.39% to investors.

The last 12 months saw GCI's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. GCI was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. GCI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -14.92% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GCI had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -10.9%.

The stock market is a discounter of all known information.
-- Kenneth Fisher

GCI is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GCI's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 12 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GCI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GCI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GCI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GCI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GCI in your portfolio. GCI usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in GCI), LULU is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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