CEDAR FAIR L P

51.81 +0.43 (+0.84%) Sell

Don't give up on FUN now, it gave a fairly good return

13 min read

CEDAR FAIR L P delivered good returns on Friday. It grew by +0.84% to close at 51.81. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing FUN]

FUN showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period FUN lost -3.29% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.89%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +3.29%.

Trend

FUN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FUN underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days FUN underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FUN delivered profits on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +3.91%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.76%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -3.75% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.99% to investors.

FUN had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, FUN underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. FUN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jul 2018, returned -9.83% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FUN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -28.54%. It is interesting to note that both FUN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I made my money the old-fashioned way. I was very nice to a wealthy relative right before he died.
-- Malcolm Forbes

FUN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FUN's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FUN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FUN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FUN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FUN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FUN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FUN.

On a general note (since you are interested in FUN), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are SQ and ABMD. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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