FNKO is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

FUNKO, INC. was among the worst performers on Thursday. It fell by -4.19% to close at 13.71. It is currently trading -55% below it's 52 week high of 31.05.

[Themes containing FNKO]

FNKO is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for FNKO's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -31.55%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to FNKO.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

FNKO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 5 Jan, 2018 to 10 Sep, 2018. Over the last 1 year 1 month and 11 day, FNKO outperformed the SP500 index on 57% days.

During the last three months FNKO was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.48% per day. It's best return during this period (of +10.21%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -21.45%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 3 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +12.49%) started on 26 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -15.49%) started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018.

During the last year FNKO had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of FNKO and SP500 index were the same. FNKO significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +44.76% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FNKO had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 8 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +148.71%. It is interesting to note that both FNKO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth after all is a relative thing since he that has little and wants less is richer than he that has much and wants more.
-- Charles Caleb Colton

FNKO is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in FNKO's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 27 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FNKO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FNKO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FNKO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FNKO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FNKO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FNKO.

On a general note (since you are interested in FNKO), if you are evaluating FNKO as an investment candidate, then you should read about RRTS which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.