Waiting to invest in FLWS? Avoid at the moment as it ranked among the worst performers

FLWS ranked among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in 1 800 FLOWERS COM INC made +0.12% per day. Monday's performance of -1.27% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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FLWS showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FLWS delivered +12.94% and saw a maximum drawdown of -15.48%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in FLWS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

FLWS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 24 Aug, 2017 to 13 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FLWS outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months FLWS delivered losses on 58% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +31.1%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.25%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.02% to investors.

The last 12 months saw FLWS's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. FLWS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. FLWS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +19.71% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FLWS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both FLWS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Experience taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that you're generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make.

FLWS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in FLWS's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 14 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FLWS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FLWS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FLWS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FLWS.

On a general note (since you are interested in FLWS), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as FLWS are GLPG and CTG. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.