FISERV INC

74.74 -1.31 (-1.75%) Sell

FISV is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

FISV was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in FISERV INC made -0.08% per day. Friday's performance of -1.75% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing FISV]

FISV showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period FISV lost -7.03% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.27%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.95%.

Trend

FISV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 16 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, FISV outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

During the last three months FISV delivered profits on 53% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +2.89%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.54%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 2 Nov, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.92% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 7 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.3% of investor capital.

FISV had 8 profitable and 4 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of FISV and SP500 index were the same. FISV significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +8.05% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FISV and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.

Some people dream of success, while other people get up every morning and make it happen.
-- Wayne Huizenga

FISV is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FISV's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FISV has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FISV to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FISV a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FISV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FISV in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FISV.

On a general note (since you are interested in FISV), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as FISV are UMH and UPS. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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