FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC

32.5 -0.79 (-2.43%) Sell

Don't invest in FDP now, it is an investor's nightmare

13 min read

FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC was among the worst performers today. It fell by -2.43% to close at 32.5. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.66%, +2.19%, +1.19%, -0.59% and +0.69%.

[Themes containing FDP]

FDP showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FDP fell by -11.03% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.61%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +11.03%.

Trend

FDP has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Nov, 2016 to 3 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FDP underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days FDP underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FDP was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.87%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.13%) was on Wednesday, 26 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 7 Nov, 2018 and ended on 19 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.9% of investor capital.

During the last year FDP had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. FDP returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. FDP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jul 2018, returned -18.11% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FDP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -27.54%. It is interesting to note that both FDP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver.
-- Ayn Rand

FDP is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FDP's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FDP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FDP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FDP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FDP. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FDP in your portfolio. FDP usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in FDP you may find it interesting to know that V and MSFT are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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