FIRSTCASH, INC

78.21 -1.79 (-2.29%) Sell

FCFS investors disappointed by market underperformance

13 min read

FIRSTCASH, INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It returned -2.29% to close at 78.21. It is currently trading -17% below it's 52 week high of 95.15.

[Themes containing FCFS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in FCFS experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.17% over the last three months. It returned -4.1% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

FCFS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FCFS outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months FCFS delivered profits on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +3.87%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.99%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and went on till 2 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -4.58% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Oct, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +14.41% to investors.

On monthly basis, FCFS delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. FCFS delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. FCFS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -12.17% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FCFS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both FCFS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money never made a man happy yet, nor will it. The more a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
-- Benjamin Franklin

FCFS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FCFS's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FCFS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FCFS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FCFS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FCFS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FCFS in your portfolio. FCFS usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in FCFS), three instruments that deserve special mention are HEAR, NFEC and I. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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