Don't buy EXEL now, it is underperforming the market
11 Dec, 201813 min read
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EXELIXIS, INC. ranked among the worst performers today. It fell by -1.78% to close at 20.98. It's recent 5 day performance has been +3.99%, -2.65%, +2.63%, -4.37% and +5.86%.
EXEL showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period EXEL delivered +25.55% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.92%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +8.21% to investors.
EXEL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 16 Mar, 2016 to 4 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, EXEL outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.
During the last three months EXEL was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.44% per day. It's best return during this period (of +16.45%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.16%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 3 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.21% to investors.
During the last year EXEL had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. EXEL returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. EXEL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +46.43% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. EXEL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jan 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -36.05%.
Success is walking from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.
-- Winston Churchill
EXEL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in EXEL's volatility from 3 Oct, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that EXEL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect EXEL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes EXEL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EXEL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than EXEL in your portfolio. EXEL usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
On a general note (since you are interested in EXEL), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are AAXN, EHC and ZBRA. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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