27.27 -0.37 (-1.34%) Buy

EVTC investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

EVERTEC, INC. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It fell by -1.34% to close at 27.27. It's recent 5 day performance has been +3.06%, -0.04%, -1.07%, +1.19% and +1.59%.

[Themes containing EVTC]

EVTC showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period EVTC surged by +16.04% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.69%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +7.48% to investors.


EVTC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 18 Dec, 2017 to 7 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, EVTC outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

EVTC was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.29% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +15.91%, during this period, on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 31 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +29.07% to investors.

During the last year EVTC had 11 profitable months and 1 loss making months. EVTC returned profits in more months than SP500 index. EVTC significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +19.45% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. EVTC had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 11 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered +74.87%. It is interesting to note that both EVTC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you are standing on the platform when the train has pulled away, It's not going to back up for you. When a bull market takes off, It's not going to back up for you.
-- Don Connelly

EVTC is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in EVTC's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that EVTC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EVTC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than EVTC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than EVTC.

On a general note (since you are interested in EVTC), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are LULU, AMD and TWTR. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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