EMCOR GROUP INC

63.51 -1.27 (-2.01%) Sell

EME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

EMCOR GROUP INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It lost -2.01% to close at 63.51 which is it's 52 week low, down -24% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing EME]

Buy-and-Hold investors in EME experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.05% over the last three months. It lost -17.05% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +10.72%.

Trend

EME has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 7 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, EME outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

EME returned losses on 61% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.28% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.74%, during this period, on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.78% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.55% of investor capital.

EME had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, EME underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. EME was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -12.83% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. EME had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages.
-- Irene Peter

EME is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in EME's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EME. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than EME in your portfolio.

On a general note (since you are interested in EME), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are PTC, EHC and AAXN. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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