DY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC was among the worst performers today. It returned -0.53% to close at 56.31. During the last week it grew by +0.23% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.03% before bouncing back.
DY is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +31.98% for investors in the last three months.
DY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 11 May, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, DY underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days DY underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months DY was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.58% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.57%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.69%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +11.53% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.38% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, DY delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. DY delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. DY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -16.83% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. DY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -19.35%.
"You don't want to have so much money going toward your mortgage every month that you can't enjoy life or take care of your other financial responsibilities.
DY is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in DY's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DY has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect DY to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes DY a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than DY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than DY in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DY.
Based on your interest in DY you may find it interesting to know that AYTU and ~SMALLCAP have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.
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