126.6 -0.67 (-0.53%) Sell

DECK investors dump it

13 min read

DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP delivered massive losses today. It fell by -0.53% to close at 126.6. It's recent 5 day performance has been +2.07%, +3.55%, -5.94%, -0.34% and -6.17%.

[Themes containing DECK]

DECK is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +8.06%) for DECK's investors than shorting it.


DECK has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Feb, 2017 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, DECK outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

DECK returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.16% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.2%, during this period, on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +6.54%) started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -6.48%) started on 9 Nov, 2018 and went on till 15 Nov, 2018.

During the last year DECK had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. DECK returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. DECK significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +21.34% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. DECK had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both DECK and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.
-- Warren Buffett

DECK is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in DECK's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DECK has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than DECK. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than DECK in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DECK.

Based on your interest in DECK you may find it interesting to know that HQY is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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