CARRIAGE SERVICES INC

15.47 -0.29 (-1.9%) Sell

CSV investors incur serious losses

13 min read

CARRIAGE SERVICES INC has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It delivered -1.9% to close at 15.47. It is currently trading -45% below it's 52 week high of 28.58.

[Themes containing CSV]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CSV experienced a maximum drawdown of -33.32% over the last three months. It delivered -30.19% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +30.19% for investors.

Trend

CSV has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 8 Dec, 2016 to 1 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CSV underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months CSV was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.51% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.94%) was on Thursday, 8 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -21.46%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +14.11%) started on 2 Nov, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.53%) started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw CSV's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. CSV was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CSV was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -12.21% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CSV had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -46.26%. It is interesting to note that both CSV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is not the only answer, but it makes a difference.
-- Barack Obama

CSV is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CSV's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CSV has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CSV to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CSV a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CSV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CSV in your portfolio. CSV usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in CSV you may find it interesting to know that MUFG and AMG have both performed similar to CSV and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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