Waiting to invest in CPB? Consider it, because it ranked better than it's peers
11 Dec, 201813 min read
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CPB ranked among the best performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in CAMPBELL SOUP CO made +0.01% per day. Tuesday's performance of +2.92% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.
CPB showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CPB delivered -3.6% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.04%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in CPB till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
CPB has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Jul, 2016 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, CPB underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days CPB underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months CPB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.04% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.46%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.44%) was on Thursday, 27 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and ended on 1 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.2% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw CPB's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. CPB was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CPB significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +20.51% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CPB had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CPB and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.
-- Peter Lynch.
CPB is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CPB's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 26 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CPB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CPB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CPB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CPB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CPB in your portfolio. CPB usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
On a general note (since you are interested in CPB), AAXN is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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