CONOCOPHILLIPS delivered massive losses on Friday. It fell by -1.05% to close at 65.91. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.
COP is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +3.6% for investors.
COP has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Jul, 2017 to 9 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, COP outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
COP was profitable on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.1% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.43%, during this period, on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.01% to investors.
During the last year COP had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of COP and SP500 index were the same. COP significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +12.76% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. COP had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +40.51%. It is interesting to note that both COP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.
-- Robert G. Allen
COP is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in COP's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that COP has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in COP derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
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