40.29 -0.18 (-0.44%) Buy

Don't buy CNK now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

CINEMARK HOLDINGS, INC. significantly underperformed today. It fell by -0.44% to close at 40.29. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.42%, +0.47%, +1.7%, +1.31% and -1.77%.

[Themes containing CNK]

CNK showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CNK increased by +5.06% and saw a maximum drawdown of -14.78%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in CNK till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


CNK has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 17 Nov, 2016 to 25 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CNK underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days CNK underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CNK was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.09% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.48%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.86%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +5.11% to investors.

During the last year CNK had 9 profitable months and 3 loss making months. CNK returned profits in more months than SP500 index. CNK significantly outperformed SP500 index in Feb 2018, when it returned +15.65% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CNK had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CNK and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Money is like manure. You have to spread it around or it smells.

CNK is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CNK's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 19 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CNK has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CNK to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CNK a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

CNK has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, CNK must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CNK.

Based on your interest in CNK you may find it interesting to know that SBOT has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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