CMPR is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
11 Dec, 201813 min read
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CMPR delivered massive losses today. On a longer term basis, investors in CIMPRESS N.V. made -0.05% per day. Tuesday's performance of -1.58% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
CMPR showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CMPR delivered -20.93% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.3%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +20.93%.
CMPR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Mar, 2017 to 8 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, CMPR outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.
CMPR returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.34% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -10.78%, during this period, on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 12 losing days, which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -22.28% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw CMPR's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. CMPR was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CMPR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Feb 2018, when it returned +27.74% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CMPR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -25.45%. It is interesting to note that both CMPR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"When you're building a company, you need to continually strengthen every component - finance, strategic partnerships, executive team, and relationships with every last constituency.
CMPR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CMPR's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CMPR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CMPR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CMPR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CMPR.
On a general note (since you are interested in CMPR), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are V and AMZN. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.
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