CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP

76.56 -0.69 (-0.91%) Sell

The party never started for CINF investors as it destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP significantly underperformed on Tuesday. It returned -0.91% to close at 76.56. It is currently trading +15% above it's 52 week low of 66.33 and is down only -7% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing CINF]

CINF is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in CINF has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on CINF at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

CINF has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, CINF outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months CINF was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.03% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.62%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.42%) was on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 31 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.89% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.31% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CINF delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. CINF delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CINF significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +12.91% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CINF had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CINF and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A stock broker is one who invests other people's money until its all gone.
-- Woody Allen

CINF is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CINF's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CINF has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CINF to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CINF a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CINF. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CINF in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CINF.

On a general note (since you are interested in CINF), three instruments that are extremely volatile are NVCN, GNK and VIPS. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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