CHURCHILL DOWNS INC

265.02 -6.14 (-2.32%) Sell

The party never started for CHDN investors as it destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

CHURCHILL DOWNS INC has destroyed investor wealth on Thursday. It returned -2.32% to close at 265.02. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 5% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing CHDN]

CHDN is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for CHDN's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -4.99%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to CHDN.

Trend

CHDN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, CHDN outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months CHDN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.43%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.9%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Oct, 2018 and went on till 17 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.3% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 18 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.39% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CHDN delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. CHDN delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CHDN significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +15.31% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CHDN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -17.19%. It is interesting to note that both CHDN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

To beat the market you'll have to invest serious bucks to dig up information no one else has yet.
-- Merton Miller

CHDN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CHDN's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CHDN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CHDN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CHDN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CHDN.

Based on your interest in CHDN you may find it interesting to know that UNH and AMZN are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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