32.56 -0.63 (-1.93%) Sell

Prayers for CEIX investors as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

CONSOL ENERGY INC. delivered massive losses on Friday. It delivered -1.93% to close at 32.56. It is currently trading -31% below it's 52 week high of 47.35.

[Themes containing CEIX]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CEIX experienced a maximum drawdown of -23.94% over the last three months. It delivered -21.84% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +16.56%.


CEIX has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Dec, 2017 to 5 Jun, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 1 month, CEIX outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months CEIX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.26%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.61%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 14 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.09% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw CEIX's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. CEIX was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CEIX significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +40.1% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CEIX had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -26.13%. It is interesting to note that both CEIX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
-- George Soros

CEIX is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CEIX's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CEIX has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CEIX is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CEIX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CEIX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CEIX.

Based on your interest in CEIX you may find it interesting to know that APPN, HOV and PCRX have all performed similar to CEIX and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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