CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC.

18.39 -0.4 (-2.18%) Sell

CCS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC. significantly underperformed on Friday. It lost -2.18% to close at 18.39. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing CCS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CCS experienced a maximum drawdown of -36.48% over the last three months. It lost -36.48% during this strong down trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +36.48% for investors.

Trend

CCS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CCS underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days CCS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CCS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.69% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.28%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.36%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -10.26% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 25 Oct, 2018 and ended on 26 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.72% to investors.

CCS had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, CCS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. CCS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -18.35% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CCS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -49.08%. It is interesting to note that both CCS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something - and then pay a lot less.
-- Joel Greenblatt

CCS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CCS's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 8 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CCS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

CCS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, CCS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CCS.

On a general note (since you are interested in CCS), if you are evaluating CCS as an investment candidate, then you should read about CLPR which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.

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