29.89 -0.48 (-1.61%) Sell

Stop-loss on the minds of CAG investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

CONAGRA BRANDS INC. has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It lost -1.61% to close at 29.89 which is it's 52 week low, down -23% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing CAG]

CAG is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +9.37% for investors in the last three months.


CAG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 27 Jun, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CAG underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CAG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CAG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.37% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.16%) was on Monday, 8 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.54%) was on Thursday, 27 Sep, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -12.3% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 3 Oct, 2018 and ended on 9 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.36% to investors.

CAG had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, CAG underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. CAG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -9.16% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CAG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CAG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"We ignore outlooks and forecasts.. we're lousy at it and we admit it .. everyone else is lousy too, but most people won't admit it.

CAG is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CAG's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CAG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CAG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CAG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CAG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CAG in your portfolio. CAG usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in CAG), if you are evaluating CAG as an investment candidate, then you should read about SAL which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.

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