Don't sell CAE now, it outperformed most of it's peers
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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CAE was among the best performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in CAE INC (Foreign) made +0.05% per day. Friday's performance of +0.36% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.
CAE showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period CAE returned -3.08% and saw a maximum drawdown of -14.29%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +0.45%.
CAE has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CAE outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
During the last three months CAE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.04% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.62%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.63%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.71% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.28% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, CAE delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. CAE delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CAE significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +14.96% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CAE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.
"All intelligent investing is value investing - acquiring more that you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.
CAE is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CAE's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CAE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CAE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CAE in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CAE.
On a general note (since you are interested in CAE), NIHD has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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