158.3 -3.53 (-2.23%) Sell

BURL is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

BURLINGTON STORES, INC. was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -2.23% to close at 158.3. It is currently trading +40% above it's 52 week low of 113.05 and is down only -9% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing BURL]

BURL is currently in a bearish trend. The previous short signal in BURL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on BURL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


BURL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Jan, 2016 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, BURL outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months BURL delivered losses on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +12.79%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.83%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 22 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +12.25% to investors.

During the last year BURL had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of BURL and SP500 index were the same. BURL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +10.06% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. BURL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +34.25%. It is interesting to note that both BURL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"You have venture capitalists. We view them as experts who also help finance your company and give directions and also some pretty candid discussions about what you have to do better.

BURL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BURL's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BURL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in BURL derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BURL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BURL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BURL.

Based on your interest in BURL you may find it interesting to know that TAST and ROCK have both performed similar to BURL and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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