18.48 -0.59 (-3.2%) Sell

BLMN investors dump it for better alternatives

13 min read

BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It lost -3.2% to close at 18.48. It is currently trading -25% below it's 52 week high of 24.8.

[Themes containing BLMN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BLMN experienced a maximum drawdown of -15.54% over the last three months. It returned -0.32% during this flat trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were marginally more profitable than the short signals.


BLMN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, BLMN underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days BLMN underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

BLMN was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.01% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.16%, during this period, on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.32% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 29 Nov, 2018 and ended on 4 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.63% of investor capital.

BLMN had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, BLMN underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. BLMN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -10.31% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BLMN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered -19.08%. It is interesting to note that both BLMN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Investors must keep in mind that there's a difference between a good company and a good stock. After all, you can buy a good car but pay too much for it .

BLMN is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BLMN's volatility from 8 Oct, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BLMN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BLMN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BLMN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BLMN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BLMN in your portfolio. BLMN usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in BLMN you may find it interesting to know that PFE, CSCO and V are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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