BL is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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BLACKLINE, INC. was among the worst performers on Thursday. It delivered -2.18% to close at 39.5. It is currently trading -30% below it's 52 week high of 57.09.
BL is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +9.91% for investors.
BL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Nov, 2016 to 25 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years and 2 months, BL outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.
BL returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.46% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +9.79%, during this period, on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 10 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -21.72% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw BL's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. BL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. BL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Feb 2018, when it returned +32.41% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. BL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.
"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.
BL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BL's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BL.
On a general note (since you are interested in BL), AAXN is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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