BOISE CASCADE CO

23.18 -0.12 (-0.52%) Sell

BCC investors check their stop-losses as it underperforms

13 min read

BOISE CASCADE CO underperformed today. It returned -0.52% to close at 23.18. During the last week it returned -3.78% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.78%.

[Themes containing BCC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BCC experienced a maximum drawdown of -43.46% over the last three months. It returned -43.46% during this strong down trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +43.46% for investors.

Trend

BCC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, BCC underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days BCC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

BCC returned losses on 64% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.87% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -7.44%, during this period, on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 4 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -11.61% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 31 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.98% to investors.

On monthly basis, BCC delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. BCC delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. BCC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -15.79% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BCC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -56.18%. It is interesting to note that both BCC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The habit of saving is itself an education; it fosters every virtue, teaches self-denial, cultivates the sense of order, trains to forethought, and so broadens the mind.
-- T.T. Munger

BCC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BCC's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BCC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BCC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BCC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BCC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BCC in your portfolio. BCC usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in BCC you may find it interesting to know that GNK is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to GNK or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.

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