38.66 +0.25 (+0.65%) Buy

AZN investors holding on and letting their profits run

13 min read

ASTRAZENECA PLC (Foreign) ranked among the best performers today. It delivered +0.65% to close at 38.66. During the last week it delivered -3.03% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.24% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing AZN]

AZN is currently in a bullish trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +2.03% for AZN's investors in the last three months.


AZN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 2 Feb, 2016 to 9 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, AZN underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days AZN underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months AZN delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.3%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.37%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.54% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw AZN's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. AZN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. AZN significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +12.38% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. AZN had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both AZN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I believe in capitalism for everybody, not necessarily high finance but capitalism that works for the working men and women of this country who are out there paddling alone in America right now.
-- Rick Santorum

AZN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AZN's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AZN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect AZN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes AZN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in AZN derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AZN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AZN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AZN.

On a general note (since you are interested in AZN), if you are an investor in EPIX, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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