AVAV does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it
11 Dec, 201813 min read
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AEROVIRONMENT INC ranked among the best performers on Tuesday. It delivered +0.79% to close at 72.57. It is currently trading -39% below it's 52 week high of 119.83.
AVAV is currently in a bearish trend. The previous short signal in AVAV has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on AVAV at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
AVAV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Oct, 2016 to 18 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, AVAV outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days AVAV outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months AVAV was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.63% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.55%) was on Friday, 14 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -16.45%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +19.0% to investors.
During the last year AVAV had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. AVAV returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. AVAV significantly outperformed SP500 index in Sep 2018, when it returned +27.52% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. AVAV and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.
Money never made a man happy yet, nor will it. The more a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
-- Benjamin Franklin
AVAV is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AVAV's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AVAV has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AVAV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AVAV in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AVAV.
On a general note (since you are interested in AVAV), AMRH has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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