AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC.

17.56 -0.2 (-1.13%) Sell

ATSG is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC. significantly underperformed today. It fell by -1.13% to close at 17.56. During the last week it fell by -2.5% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.62% before bouncing back.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in ATSG experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.6% over the last three months. It fell by -21.33% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +13.41%.

Trend

ATSG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 2 Aug, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ATSG outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ATSG outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ATSG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.34% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.57%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.58%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 5 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.81% of investor capital.

During the last year ATSG had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. ATSG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ATSG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -11.9% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ATSG had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -16.5%.

Don't tell me where your priorities are. Show me where you spend your money and I'll tell you what they are.
-- James W. Frick

ATSG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ATSG's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ATSG has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ATSG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ATSG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ATSG.

Based on your interest in ATSG you may find it interesting to know that CSCO, UNH and MSFT are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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