ARMK is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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ARMK was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in ARAMARK made -0.04% per day. Friday's performance of -1.93% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
ARMK showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ARMK fell by -23.6% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.82%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +4.75% to investors.
ARMK has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 29 Sep, 2016 to 11 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ARMK underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days ARMK underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months ARMK was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.76%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -12.37%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 26 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.78% of investor capital.
During the last year ARMK had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ARMK returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ARMK was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -15.71% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ARMK had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ARMK and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.
-- Steve Jobs
ARMK is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ARMK's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 12 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ARMK has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ARMK to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ARMK a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ARMK. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ARMK in your portfolio. ARMK usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
Based on your interest in ARMK you may find it interesting to know that AAXN, ZBRA and PTC are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.
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