ARAY continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

ACCURAY INC underperformed on Friday. It delivered -0.26% to close at 3.78. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing ARAY]

ARAY showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ARAY delivered -1.82% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.86%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ARAY till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

ARAY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Jan, 2016 to 16 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ARAY underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ARAY underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

ARAY returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.09% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +30.52%, during this period, on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +48.73% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ARAY's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. ARAY was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ARAY significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +25.56% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ARAY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -24.34%. It is interesting to note that both ARAY and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Financial support is one thing, but I always think what becomes really sacrificial is your time.
-- Cliff Richard

ARAY is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ARAY's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 27 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ARAY has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ARAY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ARAY in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ARAY.

Based on your interest in ARAY you may find it interesting to know that VIPS, GNK and IMTE are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.