APTV is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
07 Dec, 201813 min read
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APTIV PLC significantly underperformed on Friday. It fell by -3.98% to close at 67.09. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 9% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.
APTV is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +21.55% for investors in the last three months.
APTV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Jan, 2016 to 9 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, APTV underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days APTV underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
APTV returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.36% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.61%, during this period, on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and ended on 28 Sep, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.22% of investor capital.
During the last year APTV had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. APTV returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. APTV significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +15.28% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. APTV had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -36.67%. It is interesting to note that both APTV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Many folks think they aren't good at earning money, when what they don't know is how to use it.
-- Frank A. Clark
APTV is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APTV's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APTV has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect APTV to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes APTV a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APTV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APTV in your portfolio. APTV usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
Based on your interest in APTV you may find it interesting to know that TWTR and ABMD are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.
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