APH investors looking to preserve capital
07 Dec, 201813 min read
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AMPHENOL CORP delivered massive losses on Friday. It returned -0.41% to close at 83.58. It is currently trading -13% below it's 52 week high of 96.99.
Buy-and-Hold investors in APH experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.71% over the last three months. It returned -13.23% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +8.76%.
APH has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, APH outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.
APH returned losses on 61% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.21% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.6%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -2.73% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.08% to investors.
On monthly basis, APH delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. APH delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. APH significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +7.35% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. APH had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both APH and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship.
APH is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APH's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APH has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect APH to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes APH a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APH. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APH in your portfolio. APH usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
On a general note (since you are interested in APH), AYTU has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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