53.82 -0.27 (-0.5%) Sell

TOT is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TOTAL S.A. (Foreign) was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It delivered -0.5% to close at 53.82. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 66% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0004%.

[Themes containing TOT]

TOT is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +5.51% for investors in the last three months.


TOT has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 29 Apr, 2016 to 30 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, TOT underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days TOT underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TOT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.43%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.61%) was on Friday, 23 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 8 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.9% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw TOT's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. TOT was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. TOT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -10.45% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TOT had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -18.77%. It is interesting to note that both TOT and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
-- Warren Buffett

TOT is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TOT's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TOT has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TOT to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TOT a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

TOT has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, TOT must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TOT.

On a general note (since you are interested in TOT), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are AMZN, V and CSCO. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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