1.16 -0.12 (-10.77%) Sell

TIS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ORCHIDS PAPER PRODUCTS CO was among the worst performers today. It returned -10.77% to close at 1.16. During the last week it returned -3.33% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.77% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing TIS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TIS experienced a maximum drawdown of -83.38% over the last three months. It returned -70.33% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +63.98%.


TIS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TIS underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months TIS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.39% per day. It's best return during this period (of +164.71%) was on Friday, 23 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -25.77%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 10 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -33.97% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 31 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +34.57% to investors.

On monthly basis, TIS delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. TIS delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TIS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -51.1% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TIS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -105.29%. It is interesting to note that both TIS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion.

TIS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TIS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TIS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TIS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TIS.

Based on your interest in TIS you may find it interesting to know that BURL, PTC and ZBRA are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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