12.82 -0.18 (-1.38%) Sell

Don't invest in TGP now, it is a high risk investment

13 min read

TGP was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in TEEKAY LNG PARTNERS L.P. (Foreign) made -0.03% per day. Friday's performance of -1.38% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing TGP]

TGP showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period TGP lost -14.25% and saw a maximum drawdown of -26.83%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +5.16% to investors.


TGP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 24 Jan, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TGP underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months TGP was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.22% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.7%) was on Friday, 28 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.82%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -11.44% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 31 Oct, 2018 and ended on 6 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +12.01% to investors.

TGP had 2 profitable and 10 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TGP underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TGP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -17.29% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TGP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from May 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered -12.4%. It is interesting to note that both TGP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Behind every stock is a company. Find out what It's doing.

TGP is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TGP's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 21 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TGP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TGP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TGP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TGP. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TGP in your portfolio. TGP usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in TGP), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are UNH, MSFT and CSCO. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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