SWCH is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
12 Dec, 201813 min read
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SWITCH, INC. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It fell by -0.28% to close at 7.23. It's recent 5 day performance has been +3.87%, -3.99%, -0.95%, +0.96% and -6.68%.
SWCH is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +35.5% for investors in the last three months.
SWCH has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Oct, 2017 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 1 year 2 months and 6 days, SWCH underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days SWCH underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
SWCH returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.58% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -23.65%, during this period, on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 10 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -19.72% of investor capital.
During the last year SWCH had 2 profitable months and 10 loss making months. SWCH returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. SWCH was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -16.64% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. SWCH had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -53.77%. It is interesting to note that both SWCH and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Empty pockets never held anyone back. Only empty heads and empty hearts can do that.
-- Norman Vincent Peale
SWCH is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SWCH's volatility from 8 Oct, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SWCH has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect SWCH to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes SWCH a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SWCH. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SWCH in your portfolio. SWCH usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
Based on your interest in SWCH you may find it interesting to know that MRIN, TTD and NURO have all performed similar to SWCH and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.
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