STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORP

34.15 -0.04 (-0.13%) Buy

STFC investors take a moment to reassess their portfolio allocation

13 min read

STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORP was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It fell by -0.13% to close at 34.15. It is currently trading +23% above it's 52 week low of 27.58 and is down only -2% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing STFC]

STFC is currently in a bullish trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +8.79% for STFC's investors in the last three months.

Trend

STFC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Sep, 2017 to 7 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, STFC outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months STFC delivered losses on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.09%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.29%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +7.76%) started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -4.23%) started on 7 Nov, 2018 and went on till 13 Nov, 2018.

During the last year STFC had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. STFC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. STFC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +11.06% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. STFC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both STFC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give.
-- William A. Ward

STFC is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in STFC's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that STFC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than STFC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than STFC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than STFC.

On a general note (since you are interested in STFC), BURL is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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