SPLUNK INC ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It delivered -1.95% to close at 106.29. It is currently trading +32% above it's 52 week low of 80.44 and is down only -17% from it's 52 week high.
SPLK showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period SPLK delivered -15.14% and saw a maximum drawdown of -29.91%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in SPLK till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
SPLK has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Feb, 2016 to 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, SPLK outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.
During the last three months SPLK was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.94%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.19%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +16.2%) started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -15.24%) started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 10 Oct, 2018.
The last 12 months saw SPLK's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. SPLK was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. SPLK significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +33.35% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SPLK had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.
It's not the employer who pays the wages. Employers only handle the money. It's the customer who pays the wages.
-- Henry Ford
SPLK is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SPLK's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SPLK has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in SPLK derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
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