SBGL investors update their stop-losses higher
07 Dec, 201813 min read
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SIBANYE GOLD LTD (Foreign) was among the best performers today. It returned +6.08% to close at 2.79. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.54%, +2.78%, +3.28%, -4.31% and -2.67%.
SBGL is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in SBGL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on SBGL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
SBGL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, SBGL underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days SBGL underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months SBGL delivered losses on 59% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +11.11%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.22%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -3.21% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +24.65% to investors.
On monthly basis, SBGL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. SBGL delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. SBGL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -26.91% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. SBGL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -43.13%. It is interesting to note that both SBGL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.
-- John Wayne
SBGL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SBGL's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 20 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SBGL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect SBGL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes SBGL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SBGL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SBGL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SBGL.
On a general note (since you are interested in SBGL), if you are an investor in OPNT, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.
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